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11 March 2005: INFLUENZA PANDEMIC: A REAL AND PRESENT THREAT
NEW ZELAND: Influenza is a very real and present threat to New Zealanders and a global pandemic in the near future could seriously challenge the capacity of our public and primary health systems. This emerges from papers in the latest New Zealand Medical Journal, using models which suggest that during a global influenza pandemic:
  • up to 3700 people in New Zealand could die from influenza;
  • up to 16,000 people could be hospitalised;
  • nearly half of all hospital beds could be taken up by flu victims at the peak of the epidemic;
  • the average GP would be consulted by 80 people a week suffering from flu and complications;

The paper by Nick Wilson, Osman Mansoor and Michael Baker of the Wellington School of Medicine uses an established model from the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention based on experience in 1957 and later pandemics.

Source: Scoop - New Zeland's Independent News Media [Press Release New Zealand Medical Association]

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